U.S.-China Mutual Trust Committee
China in the 21st Century
Since the Opium Wars the Qing Dynasty continued in its decline and was finally overthrown by Dr. Sun Yat Sen’s revolutionary forces in 1911. The subsequently established Republic of China was soon consumed in a chaotic civil war, though the Japanese invasion in 1937 did force the factions to unite in resistance. U.S. entry into WWII in 1941 helped turn the tide, and Japan surrendered in 1945 and departed from China. Civil war promptly resumed, culminating in the Communist Party unifying the Mainland and the Kuomintang Party retreating to Taiwan in 1949. Under Mao Zedong, the Mainland went through several devastating convulsions and remained closed to the West until Mao decided to welcome a visit from President Nixon and Secretary of State Henry Kissinger in 1972. Rapprochement accelerated under Deng Xiaoping, who succeeded Mao when he died in 1976. Deng decided to open up the country and began to promote modernization of China’s economy.
Overcoming Poverty and Hunger — From the 1980s to 2021, China succeeded in lifting 800 million of its citizens out of poverty, an achievement they were proud to announce to the world. China is a founding member the Multidimensional Poverty Peer Network (MPPN) and one of the first adapters of the multidimensional poverty measure. This poverty index was developed by the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI). In 2016 OPHI collaborated with Beijing Normal University and the International Poverty Reduction Center in China to present a Summer School 2016 on the Multidimensional Poverty Analysis. https://ophi.org.uk/
To be able to feed its vast population is of deep importance to the Chinese government. China is home to nearly 20% of the global population while accounting for only 10% of the world’s arable land. It intends to increase its domestic grain production, as well as investing in infrastructure and farmland in foreign countries, most notably in Brazil.
Janus Dongye Qimeng — He addresses the question Does China produce enough food to feed its populace? In this Quora blog, Qimeng gives a resounding “yes” and provides an illuminating account of a burgeoning world power – its past, and its potential future.
Economic Progress in China — In the short span of fifty years, China, in terms of GDP, has grown to be the second largest economy in the world and has become a global trading partner. The following charts show that historically, global dominance has been shifting along with demographics. In 2010 the U.S. had 13.3% of the world market, while China had 12.3%. By 2030, China is projected to have 18% of the world market, while the U.S. would have 10.1%. Under Xi, China has become the leading manufacturing nation, with its share of global manufacturing rising from 17% to 21% during his first two terms as President.
The following chart illustrates the trajectory of China’s economic progress:
The Lowy Institute has developed an interactive chart that shows the rise in China’s global trade dominance from 1980-2018.
https://interactives.lowyinstitute.org/charts/china-us-trade-dominance/us-china-competition
The following chart shows China’s trading power dominance in 2020:
How China Perceives Itself — To the Chinese, becoming a world leader does not mean supplanting the U.S. on the world stage. Rather, it means being accorded equal recognition and mutual respect among world leaders. China is no longer the “Sick Man” in Asia.
Peter Coy, in What Americans Don’t Understand about China says, “The latest World Values Survey, conducted from 2017 to 2020, indicates that 95 percent of Chinese participants had significant confidence in their government, compared to 33 percent in the United States. Similarly, 93 percent of Chinese participants valued security over freedom; only 28 percent of Americans did so.”
Coy also interviewed Keyu Jin, a professor at the London School of Economics and a world-renowned economist who was born in China and educated in the United States. Jin is the author of New China Playbook: Beyond Socialism and Capitalism and writes that young Chinese “are more open-minded, more socially conscious, more tolerant, more accepting of diversity … But it’s not contradictory with the fact that they choose to be close to home and invent local culture … By understanding the Chinese model, the people, the culture, and history in its true perspective, one can reconcile what may appear to be contradictions to the Western eye.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/17/opinion/china-keyu-jin.html
Governance of China — This is a four-volume collection of speeches and writings by President Xi Jinping. Presenting the official party line for China’s development in the 21st century, the collection is an authoritative source on Xi Jinping Thoughts and a literary successor to Chairman Mao Zedong’s Quotations from Chairman Mao Tse-tung. It covers Xi’s speeches from 2012 to 2021 and includes practically every conceivable topic. Below are some of the main points.
1: Prosperity for All Chinese Citizens — This is Xi’s highest priority and the target of two of his Centenary Goals. Throughout its 4500-year history, China’s primary concern serving its ‘peasant farmers’, 老百姓 [lǎobǎi xìng], particularly in terms of food. Xi and his recent predecessors have followed in this time-honored tradition.
By 2021, the centenary of the founding of the Communist Party, many Chinese citizens were moderately comfortable. By 2049, 100 years from the founding the People’s Republic of China, all Chinese people will be prosperous.
Based on World Bank data from 1992-2020, China was rated with a Gini Coefficient of 35-40, while the U.S. received a score of 40-45. The Gini Coefficient is a measure of the inequality among different levels of income in a group or country. China’s score, lower than that of the United States, means there is less disparity among its many levels of income compared to the U.S.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient
2: Equal Treatment at World Organizations — Xi has frequently stressed world peace and made clear that he supports global institutions such as the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Trade Organization. At the same time, he objects to the fact that these institutions give preferential treatment to the U.S. and Europe. For example, the influential G7 consists only of the U.S. and previous European colonial powers. China applied to the United Nations for an Asia Development Fund and was turned down. When equality is ignored, China is starting competitive institutions.
3: World Peace — Throughout its long history, China, under its 2000-year-old tributary system, has never been a colonizer. Since the Han Dynasty (around 111 BCE) the Chinese had been conducting peaceful trade throughout the South China Sea. Admiral Zheng He’s several expeditions led to an expansion of this maritime trade, but China never colonized any of the countries in which Chinese citizens had been conducting trade.
China has centuries of history to show that it has never initiated expansionist wars. It is unlikely that Xi Jinping wants war.
4: World View — Recently, partly through its One Belt, One Road Initiative, China has been actively forming multiple alliances around the world:
- Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) includes China, Russia, and 4 of the ‘Stans’ in Central Asia
- BRICS – Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa
- Eurasian organizations
- Middle East organizations
- African organizations
- South American organizations
The Samarkand Declaration of the Council of Heads of State of the SCO is a comprehensive and exhaustive summary of all the areas in which the SCO will collaborate with one another. China has taken a leadership role and signed, in rapid succession, similar declarations with all other developing countries worldwide. One of China’s leverages with these partners is its domestic market. China has also pledged assistance in developing infrastructure in these countries.
Taken together, these declarations include two-thirds of the world’s population. The declaration advocates for peace and international cooperation and recognizes that every nation will determine its own form of self-government.
None of the European countries or the U.S. are involved in any of these Declarations. The long-term outcomes / effects of these alliances remain to be seen. However, it is concerning that the current U.S. fixation on the “immediate” (gratification) and its short-term planning horizon (or lack of intention altogether), as well as the increasingly-obvious defects in its political system, make it easy for the U.S. to be “benignly displaced” by a powerful long-term visionary society.
Full text of Xi’s speech at SCO Samarkand Summit:
5: Internal Focus — Insights into what “Socialism with Chinese Characteristics” means are contained in the Third Resolution of the Central Committee issued in 2021. This document contains the philosophical foundation for China’s merger of socialism and capitalism. Some economists have commented that this is in fact very similar to Scandinavian Socialism:
- Commitment to raising the Chinese standard of living to equal that of the U.S. and Europe by 2049
- Commitment to ‘earn the right to rule’ by keeping the Chinese people satisfied
- Demands of commitment, from the Party leadership on down, to hard work
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-03/17/c_137046261.htm
6: Harmony with Nature — Xi is emphatic about this as well, reviving an age-old Chinese scholarly tradition. In recent years Beijing and Shanghai have greatly reduced their air pollution, and Shanghai now has completed 400 of its 1000 planned city parks. Xi has also begun turning his attention to the establishment of National Parks.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Governance_of_China
Problems in China — Along with its spectacular growth, China has also experienced problems. Currently its property sector is in disarray and its youth unemployment stands at 20%. Its hidden debt is equal to 52% of its GDP. Strict COVID lockdown has been an issue, as is a lack of arable land. 40% of its population lives in the North China Plain where the temperatures are rapidly rising.
The Chinese population is also aging. Coupled with a low birth rate, the population is headed for a steep decline in the next few decades. Unlike the United States, China has a minimal history of immigration. According to the United Nations, more than 300,000 elite Chinese moved away in 2022, more than doubling the pace from a decade ago. In that year Singapore registered 7312 corporate entities with Chinese owners, up 47% from the previous year. In contrast, strong immigration into the U.S. will energize its growth.
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/10/30/chinas-age-of-malaise
China Labour Bulletin — Established in 1994 and based in Hong Kong, the CLB in May 2023 reported that:
- Since early January 2023, it has recorded 108 factory workers’ protests, over twice the number recorded in all of 2022
- Reduced orders from international buyers and poor economic conditions have led factories to lay off workers, relocate to reduce costs, or shut down altogether
- The CLB’s study of these incidents reveals that the intent of China’s labour laws is not being followed, and international brands should take note of their responsibility to ensure that suppliers comply with domestic laws
https://clb.org.hk/en/content/surge-manufacturing-protests-china-deserves-international-attention
China’s Engagement with the World — China’s Foreign Policy: One Belt, One Road Initiative
Wang Yi — Former State Councilor and Foreign Minister of China: “China is committed to a path of peaceful development, one that underlines peaceful coexistence and mutually beneficial cooperation with countries around the world. China never seeks global hegemony. China will blaze a path of peaceful rise, distinct from the trajectory of traditional powers. The wisdom from China’s millennia of history teaches that countries going after hegemony are bound to fail, and that not all countries fight for hegemony when they grow stronger. China pursues development and rejuvenation through its own hard work, instead of aggression or expansion. In everything we do here in China, we do it for a better life for the Chinese people, rather than replace or outcompete anyone.”
https://www.cfr.org/event/conversation-state-councilor-wang-yi-china
China and the Middle East — China is ”heralding the beginnings of a Multipolar Middle East.” Henry Kissinger argued that “The United States is no longer the indispensable power in the region – the only country strong or supple enough to broker peace deals. China has claimed a share of that convening power.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/03/16/china-saudi-arabia-iran-middle-east-change
The Broader Context behind China’s Mediation between Iran and Saudi Arabia —
“China has been vocally calling for reconfiguring the regional security architecture in the Persian Gulf since 2020 … China took the mantle of responsibility and the role of a direct mediator when it was clear that an agreement was possible to finalize the détente. While China’s former Foreign Minister – and current Politburo member – Wang Yi directly mediated the agreement … a deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia fits China’s broader strategy and interests in the Persian Gulf.”
China and the South China Sea: Trade throughout Southeast Asia — Throughout China’s history it has never been a colonizer. Its long-running tributary system included a recognition of local sovereignty. For centuries, the Chinese have been engaged in private peaceful trade with many countries in Southeast Asia and along the Gulf of Bengal. There is evidence to suggest that since at least 111 BCE the Chinese people were openly living in and using uninhabited land in the South China Sea at multiple locations, and that they were the first to settle in the area and to establish administrative services. But they never raised the Chinese flag and claimed the land for their sovereign.
Islands in the South China Sea have been on maps in China since at least 79 AD. The many voyages of Admiral Zheng He in the early 1400s throughout the South China Sea, to the Indian Ocean, to the east coast of Africa have recently been confirmed. While the Ming Dynasty Emperors expected tributes from these countries, they never made these countries colonies of China.
https://asiasociety.org/education/chinese-trade-indian-ocean
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: Who Makes the Rules? China and the Law of the Sea — This report presents a discussion on current maritime disputes over how international law of the sea should apply to the South China Sea and how China’s proposed navigational rules conflict with those of the United States, and a preview of Isaac Kardon’s book, China’s Law of the Sea: The New Rules of Maritime Order (Yale, 2023).
https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/05/11/who-makes-rules-china-and-law-of-sea-event-8084
China and Latin America and the Caribbean — In 2016, the Chinese government issued its updated Policy Paper on Latin America and the Caribbean, putting forward the goal of establishing a comprehensive and cooperative partnership featuring equality, mutual benefit, and common development with Latin American and Caribbean countries.Today, China is the most important trading partner for most of the countries in Latin America.
“China has entered a crucial stage in achieving the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. To fulfill the “two centenary goals” of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects by 2020 and turning the nation into a modern socialist country that is prosperous, strong, democratic, culturally advanced, and harmonious by the mid-21st century, China has been actively promoting the construction of a socialist market economy, socialist democracy, advanced culture, a harmonious society, as well as ecological civilization.
China adheres to the independent foreign policy of peace and is unswerving in its implementation of the opening-up policy. China stands ready to expand common interests with other countries, promote the construction of a new type of international relations with win-win cooperation at the core, and forge a community of shared future. All countries are taking active steps to cope with the challenges and maintain and promote inclusive and sustainable economic and social development.
Based on equality and mutual benefit, the comprehensive and cooperative partnership between China and Latin America and the Caribbean is oriented towards common development.
Sticking to the principle of equality and sincere mutual support is the fundamental premise of the development of relations between China and Latin America and the Caribbean, China adheres to the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence.”
A New Alliance: the Greater Eurasian Partnership — This partnership is being created and is to consist of Russia, Central Asia, and Southeast Asia, including China. Sixty-seven of its members represent past European colonies. Its main goal is to secure peace and develop prosperity in Central Asia, and it views the West as interfering and the U.S. as condescending. This Global South (vs. the Global North which consists mainly of the U.S. and Europe) does not support the U.S. / Europe sanctions against Russia. To date, 154 nations have applied to be part of the One Belt, One Road Initiative.